AIDS To Leave More Than 30 Million
Orphans by 2010, Report Says
By Emelia Sithole
Reuters

DURBAN (July 13, 2000) - AIDS will create over 30 million orphans in developing countries by the end of the decade, a leading U.S. aid agency said on Thursday.

In a report to the International AIDS Conference in Durban, USAID said AIDS and related illnesses would leave 30.2 million children without one or both parents in the 34 sub-Saharan, Asian, Latin American and Caribbean countries surveyed.

The figure is more than double the number of orphans left by the epidemic worldwide over the past 15 years. Adding in other diseases, USAID said there would be over 44 million orphans.

USAID officials said their forecasts were much higher than the 20 million global estimate given by the U.N. Children's Fund on Wednesday because they include children who will lose either a father or mother or both. UNICEF and UNAIDS definitions only applies to the loss of a mother or both parents.

''The HIV/AIDS pandemic is producing orphans on a scale unrivalled in world history,'' the report, titled ''Children on the Brink'' said.

''Historically, large-scale orphaning has been a sporadic, short-term problem caused by war, famine or disease. AIDS has transformed it into long-term chronic problem that will extend at least through the first third of this century,'' it says.

Sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of the 34.3 million people infected with HIV live, will bear the brunt of coping with millions of orphans as more parents die from AIDS.

''Children on the Brink'' says since the large number of those orphaned by AIDS do not have HIV, the ranks of AIDS orphans will continue to swell through at least 2020 as the epidemic has yet to peak in most developing countries.

Already in the Central African Republic, Malawi, Rwanda, Zambia and Zimbabwe, one in five children under 15 years of age is an orphan and this ratio is likely to be one in three in 11 countries over the next decade.

Francois-Xavier Bagnoud (FXB), a private U.S. charity, said the number of children affected in Uganda, which has borne the brunt of the AIDS pandemic for over a decade, was at least six times higher than reported in international studies.

U.S. officials said the implications for developing countries were grave, with the extended family structures which provide a protective net for orphaned children coming under severe strain as AIDS reaped a grim harvest among those in the prime of their parenting years.

With the burden of more children to raise, many families cannot afford school fees so many children go uneducated. More children in a household also often means less food for each.

U.S. officials warned that countries could be facing a generation of children with little access to education, health services and with no adult guidance. This could undermine social stability and national security as many of these children could be forced to turn to crime to survive.

''This indicates bad news for the stability and national security of these societies,'' said Sandra Thurman, U.S. director of the office of national AIDS policy at the White House.

''The potential for social unrest and stability is pretty significant if you have a substantial group of your population that has been undereducated, malnourished and not able to go to school. No-one can predict exactly what the consequences will be.''

She said statistics in South Africa, which has one of the world's highest crime rates, revealed a 'startling' link with the increasing number of AIDS orphans. In Zambia, the majority of the 100,000 children living on the streets are AIDS orphans and more are expected to swell the ranks.

An increasing number of households in the worst-hit countries in Africa are headed by children. Many more children are left to wander the streets.

Susan Hunter, co-author of the USAID report, said efforts to support and relieve the strain on family support structures and to help cash-strapped governments to cope with the growing number of orphans needed to be boosted.

''African governments and people can avert a major crisis but are going to require major resources and development of sophisticated planning tools,'' Hunter said.